Christians can claim all day long that the bodily resurrection of Jesus was a possible historical event, but they CANNOT claim that a resurrection is the most probable explanation for the early Christian belief in the Resurrection. Even Christians must admit that resurrections are an extremely rare event (it happened only once, if at all, in all of human history). Empty tombs, sloppy soldiering, sightings of dead people, and the appearance of never heard of before beliefs are much, much more common.
It’s math, folks. It’s simple math.
Face and accept the facts: The early Christian belief in a resurrection was most probably based on natural events and human misperceptions and not a miracle.